I Wanna Get Pumped

Leave the Money on the Nightstand.

Heating and cooling, unlike big expensive purchases like a car, are actually energy dominant. You’re going to spend more money on energy over the life of the heat pump than you will on the heat pump itself. This is the inverse of a car, where the upfront cost dominates rather than the cost of fuel or maintenance.

Which is why it’s so essential to be sized correctly, installed correctly from day one, and maintained throughout. There could be a difference between buying a new heat pump every year in energy versus every fifteen years.

Heads up on incentives: the federal Section 25C tax credit expired December 31, 2025. State and utility rebates are still active in most places. See Stack the Money for what currently applies in your state.

Leave the Money on the Nightstand

How much is this gonna cost me?

Heat pumps are energy dominant, over a decade, you'll usually spend more keeping them running than buying them. Here's the full picture, in the currency of whichever bed you're currently in.

Region
United States: Air-source heat pumps. Federal 25C tax credit expired December 31, 2025; state + utility rebates can still knock $2k-$10k off depending on income and geography. Geothermal runs $20k-$40k+.
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Gross installed costs before government grants and rebates. Air-source heat pumps in existing single-family homes; geothermal and large commercial systems are 2-4× higher. Actual pricing varies by climate zone, installer, system efficiency, available incentives, and how hot and bothered you wanna get. All amounts in USD.
#GetHeatPumped
Assumptions used (what could make your number wrong)
  • Electricity rate: US figures use $0.185/kWh (EIA 2026 residential national average). Your actual rate ranges from $0.11 (TVA, Pacific NW) to $0.32 (Hawaii, parts of CA/NY). A 2× rate difference doubles the energy column.
  • Annual energy: 3,000-8,500 kWh/yr depending on system size. Climate zone, insulation, and how you run the thermostat can swing this by ±40%.
  • Lifetime horizon: 15 years for the lifetime view. Real heat pumps last 12-20 years, depending heavily on install quality and maintenance.
  • Maintenance: Not included in the headline number. Budget $150-$300/yr for annual inspection + filter changes.
  • Backup heat: Resistance strips, if your system uses them, can add $200-$600/yr in cold-climate zones. Not modelled here.
  • Incentives: Figures shown are PRE-incentive. State + utility rebates can take 30-70% off depending on income and geography.
  • Equipment degradation: Heat pumps lose 1-3% efficiency per year. Not modelled.
  • Fuel/rate escalation: Not modelled. Electricity has risen ~4% per year over the last decade; if that continues, real lifetime energy costs run higher.

Two identical homes can differ by 2-4× in operating economics depending on climate, insulation, electric rate, and how the system is run. Treat the chart as a starting conversation, not a quote.